TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Gibson vs D. Shnaider (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with D. Shnaider favoured at 1.21.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Gibson | D. Shnaider |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
20.2% | 79.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
16.2% | 83.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
18.2% | 81.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.2% | 78.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Gibson | hard | 1825 | 179–94 | 273 |
| D. Shnaider | hard | 1841 | 98–62 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
D. Shnaider leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 21, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | D. Shnaider | 2 - 1 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Lys | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used