TennisEdge's AI bot is backing T. Fritz (moneyline) in T. Fritz vs A. Bublik (Wimbledon on 2026-07-06).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.8% | 32.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 |
| June 13, 2026 | Stuttgart | grass | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 30, 2025 | Paris | hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 |
| July 27, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 15, 2022 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | — | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
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T. Fritz vs A. Bublik — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass)
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MODELS
Market implied (devig): Fritz 60.2% | Bublik 39.8% (1.57 / 2.37)
ELO: Fritz 67.8%
ML (market-anchored): Fritz 68.0%
Serve/return: Fritz 64.8%
Blended model: Fritz 64.8%
→ Both ELO and ML sit ~7-8pp ABOVE market. Value edge +4.6% on Fritz (A).
FORM (last 90d, grass)
FRITZ (A):
07-04 W vs Sonego (Strong 1675) GRIND 4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6
07-02 W vs Kypson (Avg 1550) DOM 6-2 6-2 7-5
06-30 W vs Lajovic (Avg 1524) DOM 6-3 6-4 6-3
Grass swing: Halle FINALIST (bt Zverev 1876 & Shelton 1910 en route),
Stuttgart FINALIST. Elite grass ball-striker, comfortable early rounds.
BUBLIK (B):
07-04 W vs Tiafoe (Strong 1804) GRIND 5-setter, 2 TBs
07-02 W vs Jacquet (Strong 1746) W 6-3 6-4 7-6
06-30 W vs Kokkinakis (Avg 1636) GRIND 5-setter
Streaky, dangerous serve, but grinding — two 5-set wars to reach R16.
HEAD-TO-HEAD (recent, grass)
06-13 Stuttgart SF: Fritz bt Bublik 6-4 6-4 (straight sets, ~DOM) — 23d ago.
FATIGUE
Fritz court-time ~480min / 14d, last match 07-04 (2d rest)
Bublik court-time ~557min / 14d, last match 07-04 (2d rest)
Diff 77min (>60) → Bublik carries the heavier legs after two 5-setters.
Edge: Fritz.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: None (Fritz's last Final = Halle L 15d ago, out of window).
Venue: Both 3-0 at this Wimbledon; amplifies, doesn't create.
Title: No recent titles either side.
VERDICT — BET Fritz (A) @1.57, 1.5u
Model edge (ELO+ML both ~68% vs market 60%) is validated on three qualitative
fronts: a straight-sets grass H2H win 23 days ago, a clear fatigue advantage
(Bublik ground out two 5-setters, +77min court load), and cleaner, higher-
quality grass form (Halle/Stuttgart finals vs Bublik's marathon survival).
Bublik's variance is the risk, but the price offers real value.
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