TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Krueger (moneyline) in A. Krueger vs M. Kostyuk (Wimbledon on 2026-07-06).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Krueger | M. Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.2% | 27.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
72.2% | 27.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Krueger | hard | 1720 | 94–83 | 177 |
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 7, 2025 | Adelaide | hard | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ A. Krueger (A) vs M. Kostyuk (B) — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass) ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO : Krueger 72.2% (heavily inflated by win volume vs weak/avg grass fields) ML : Krueger 33.6% (market-anchored, sides with book) Market: Krueger 34.4% @ 2.75 | Kostyuk 65.6% @ 1.44 Value : pick A, edge +0.38 (huge — model split, ELO vs market/ML) FORM — Krueger (grass specialist, red-hot) W vs Snigur (1706 Strong) 6-3 6-2 DOM W vs Bolkvadze(1640 Avg) 6-1 6-0 DOM W vs Vekic (1796 Strong) 3-6 7-6 6-4 GRIND (3set) TITLES this grass swing: Birmingham (May31), Ilkley (Jun14) → genuine grass form, dominant recent Wimbledon wins FORM — Kostyuk (clay specialist, grinding on grass) W vs Navarro (1843 Strong) 2-6 6-4 6-1 GRIND W vs Blinkova (1644 Avg) 6-7 6-3 6-2 GRIND W vs Podoroska (1454 Weak) 6-1 6-2 DOM Elite ceiling is CLAY: bt Swiatek 2046, Svitolina 2050, Madrid final vs Andreeva → grass resume is thin, two 3-set grinds to reach R16 FATIGUE Krueger: 6 matches/14d, 435 court-min — but last two Wimbledon wins were quick DOMs (~130min) Kostyuk: 3 matches/14d, 228 court-min — but last two were draining 3-set grinds → freshness for THIS match roughly equal; not the Krueger red flag the raw court-min implies NARRATIVE Let-down: none active (last Final = Ilkley title, 22d ago) Venue: Krueger perfect grass-court-season run (Birmingham + Ilkley champ) TITLE: Ilkley (grass) 22d ago — live grass form outweighs Kostyuk's historical clay ELO VERDICT — BET Krueger (A) @ 2.75, 1.5u Market anchors to Kostyuk's clay reputation/ranking; on grass the surface edge flips. In-form grass champ with DOM wins vs a clay specialist grinding 3-setters is worth far more than 34%. ELO's disagreement is validated by the surface + form read. Not full conviction — ML+market consensus and Kostyuk's elite ceiling cap the stake. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════