TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Fery (moneyline) in G. Dimitrov vs A. Fery (Wimbledon on 2026-07-06).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Dimitrov | A. Fery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.0% | 45.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.2% | 45.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.9% | 40.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Dimitrov | hard | 1828 | 105–74 | 179 |
| A. Fery | hard | 1722 | 118–49 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
A. Fery leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Fery | 3 - 2 |
| L | N. Borges | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ G. Dimitrov vs A. Fery — Wimbledon 1/8-finals (grass) ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO : Dimitrov 0.639 (agrees w/ market — efficient) ML : Dimitrov 0.550 (market-anchored; sees Fery ~0.45, +10.7% edge) Model: Dimitrov 0.599 / Fery 0.401 Market: Dimitrov 1.44 (imp 0.656) | Fery 2.75 (devig 0.344) Value pick: Fery (B) — edge +5.8% after 30% shrink FORM — Dimitrov (A) W vs Berrettini 1872 (Elite) 6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3 GRIND, 5 sets W vs Mensik 1650 (Avg/Strong) 7-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 GRIND W vs Sweeny 1750 (Strong) 7-6 6-3 7-5 GRIND Read: legit deep Wimbledon run, beat an Elite. 35yo off a 5-set war. FORM — Fery (B) — BREAKOUT W vs Bergs 1770 (Strong) 2 TBs, 5 sets GRIND W vs Virtanen 1839 (Strong) 3-1 GRIND W vs Dzumhur 1440 (Weak) 3-1 (dominant after S1) Season: French Open SF, Birmingham SF; beat Mannarino 1807, Hijikata 1708. Read: playing far above historical ELO on grass; the form horse. FATIGUE Dimitrov: 727min / 6 matches 14d / b2b 2 / last 07-04 Fery : 726min / 5 matches 14d / b2b 1 / last 07-04 Verdict: Roughly equal court time — but Fery's younger legs recover better off two back-to-back 5-set/4-set grinds. Slight physical edge Fery. NARRATIVE Let-down: None (neither has a recent exact Final) Venue: both mid-run at Wimbledon, no prior-title amplifier VERDICT — BET Fery (B) 1.5u @2.75 ELO agrees with market (name value on Dimitrov), but the market-anchored ML meaningfully dissents (+10.7%) and the qualitative read validates it: Fery's sustained grass breakout beating Strong/near-Elite opposition, at a plus price, with equal-or-better freshness vs a 35yo coming off a 5-set war. Dimitrov remains the forecast winner; this is a value play on the dog. ═══════════════════════════════════════════