TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs F. Cobolli (Wimbledon on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | F. Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.5% | 29.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Cobolli | 3 - 0 |
| Oct. 24, 2024 | ATP Vienna | hard | A. De Minaur | 1 - 0 |
| Jan. 19, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ A. De Minaur (A) vs F. Cobolli (B) Wimbledon — grass — 1/8-finals — 2026-07-06 ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob A: 0.741 ML prob A: 0.705 Model prob A: 0.690 Market implied A: 0.762 (A @1.25 / B @4.00) Value pick: B, edge +7.2% (math-only, 0.25-Kelly → bot said 2u) FORM — A. De Minaur (grass, fresh) W vs Svajda 1799 (Strong) 6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4 GRIND W vs Mannarino 1790 (Strong) 6-3 6-2 6-2 DOM W vs Burruchaga 1515 (Weak) 7-6 6-1 6-0 DOM(after TB) London QF L vs Nakashima; London 1/8 DOM vs Shapovalov Wimbledon venue: 3-0. Grass-class top-10 player. FORM — F. Cobolli (clay specialist on grass) W vs Khachanov 1788 (Strong) 0-6 7-6 7-6 2-6 2-6 → 5-SET GRIND W vs Duckworth 1571 (Avg) 4 sets, 2 TBs GRIND W vs Navone 1441 (Weak) 4 sets, TBs GRIND Best surface clay (FO finalist); Halle 1R loss to Tiafoe on grass. Wimbledon venue: 3-0 but every match a war. FATIGUE A: 3 matches/14d, ~369 min court time, last 07-04 B: 4 matches/14d, ~668 min court time, back-to-back, last 07-04 Court-time diff 299 min (>60) → HEAVY edge De Minaur. Cobolli gassed. NARRATIVE Let-down: none in window for either. Title recency: none (De Minaur lost Hertogenbosch F 22d ago). Venue: both 3-0 at Wimbledon, but Cobolli's path far costlier. VERDICT: PASS The +7.2% "value" on Cobolli is a math-only (ELO+ML) artifact. The qualitative read kills it: De Minaur is the superior grass player, fresher by ~5 hours of court time, while Cobolli is a clay specialist who has survived three consecutive marathons. Surface + fatigue argue De Minaur is fairly-to-under priced, not Cobolli under. No validated edge either side → no bet. ═══════════════════════════════════════════