TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sierra vs A. Blinkova (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Blinkova favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Sierra | A. Blinkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.2% | 53.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Sierra | clay | 1799 | 152–59 | 211 |
| A. Blinkova | hard | 1646 | 101–95 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
S. Sierra leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | S. Sierra | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Watson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Sasnovich | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Zantedeschi | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used