TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in G. Ruse vs T. Townsend (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with G. Ruse favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Ruse | T. Townsend |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.8% | 25.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.2% | 51.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.0% | 41.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.8% | 46.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Ruse | hard | 1766 | 83–58 | 141 |
| T. Townsend | hard | 1840 | 79–48 | 127 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
G. Ruse leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 7, 2025 | Doha | hard | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 1 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Trevisan | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | May 26, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used