TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Osaka vs M. Frech (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | M. Frech |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.4% | 32.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
73.7% | 26.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.9% | 35.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used