TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Boulter vs L. Fernandez (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with K. Boulter favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Boulter | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.4% | 30.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Boulter | hard | 1758 | 102–70 | 172 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
| June 9, 2026 | London | grass | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 17, 2024 | WTA Billie Jean King Cup - World Group | — | K. Boulter | 2 - 0 |
| July 30, 2023 | WTA Washington | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Cross | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. C. Grant | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Vekic | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used