TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Zarazua vs S. Kraus (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with R. Zarazua favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Zarazua | S. Kraus |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.4% | 67.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.0% | 44.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Zarazua | hard | 1720 | 110–84 | 194 |
| S. Kraus | clay | 1776 | 175–88 | 263 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
S. Kraus leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used