TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samsonova vs K. Siniakova (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with K. Siniakova favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Samsonova | K. Siniakova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.1% | 52.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.8% | 69.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.1% | 52.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.8% | 60.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
| K. Siniakova | hard | 1822 | 101–77 | 178 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 |
| June 26, 2024 | WTA Bad Homburg | grass | K. Siniakova | 2 - 1 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | R. Masarova | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used