TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Cirstea vs L. Noskova (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with L. Noskova favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Cirstea | L. Noskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.8% | 55.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.3% | 56.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
| L. Noskova | hard | 1892 | 107–53 | 160 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
Level at 3–3 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 |
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| March 20, 2026 | Miami | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 1 |
| March 8, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 17, 2026 | WTA Dubai | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
| W | K. Muchova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used