TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs A. Davidovich Fokina (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.70.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rublev | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.8% | 40.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.0% | 40.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.8% | 44.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rublev | hard | 1854 | 163–90 | 253 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
A. Rublev leads 6–1 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 3, 2025 | Toronto | hard | A. Rublev | 1 - 1 |
| April 17, 2025 | Barcelona | clay | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 30, 2024 | ATP Beijing | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| April 28, 2024 | ATP Madrid | clay | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used