TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs N. Basilashvili (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | N. Basilashvili |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.7% | 49.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.4% | 64.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.8% | 56.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| N. Basilashvili | hard | 1638 | 77–89 | 166 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
N. Basilashvili leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 0 |
| May 16, 2025 | Bordeaux | clay | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Vrbensky | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used