TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs A. Pellegrino (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | A. Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.4% | 61.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.3% | 55.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
A. Pellegrino leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used