TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Llamas Ruiz vs D. Medvedev (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Llamas Ruiz | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
81.3% | 18.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.5% | 34.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.0% | 66.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Llamas Ruiz | clay | 1792 | 152–76 | 228 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 5, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Giron | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Rice | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Lajal | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Kuzuhara | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Z. Svajda | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used