TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Cirstea vs J. Ostapenko (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with S. Cirstea favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Cirstea | J. Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.7% | 48.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.2% | 36.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1767 | 88–73 | 161 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
S. Cirstea leads 4–2 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 6, 2026 | WTA Brisbane | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 7, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | S. Cirstea | 1 - 0 |
| Jan. 9, 2024 | WTA Adelaide | hard | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 |
| July 6, 2023 | WTA Wimbledon | grass | S. Cirstea | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Ruzic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 1 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used