TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs A. Pellegrino (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.01.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | A. Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.2% | 27.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
88.1% | 11.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
81.0% | 19.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
80.5% | 19.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
94.1% | 5.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | hard | 2299 | 219–45 | 264 |
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| March 31, 2019 | Santa Margherita Di Pula | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used