TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Darderi vs A. Zverev (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with A. Zverev favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Darderi | A. Zverev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.4% | 55.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
23.8% | 76.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
| A. Zverev | hard | 2032 | 173–66 | 239 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 1 |
| May 12, 2024 | ATP Rome | clay | A. Zverev | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used