TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs N. Basilashvili (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rublev | N. Basilashvili |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.6% | 25.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rublev | hard | 1854 | 163–90 | 253 |
| N. Basilashvili | hard | 1638 | 77–89 | 166 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
A. Rublev leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 31, 2025 | ATP Montpellier | hard | A. Rublev | 0 - 0 |
| June 13, 2022 | Halle | grass | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 0 |
| June 19, 2021 | Halle | grass | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 11, 2020 | Rotterdam | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Vrbensky | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used