TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Musetti vs C. Ruud (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with C. Ruud favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Musetti | C. Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.9% | 61.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Musetti | hard | 1907 | 96–84 | 180 |
| C. Ruud | hard | 1866 | 119–78 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
C. Ruud leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| July 22, 2023 | ATP Bastad | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 3, 2022 | Paris | hard | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used