TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Jodar vs L. Tien (Rome on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.2% | 25.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.8% | 20.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.3% | 34.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.1% | 26.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.6% | 25.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Jodar leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Rome | clay | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 17, 2025 | Next Gen Finals - Jeddah | hard | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used