TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Collignon (moneyline) in R. Collignon vs A. Fils (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Collignon | A. Fils |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.4% | 61.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.8% | 56.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
46.7% | 53.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Collignon | clay | 1830 | 136–49 | 185 |
| A. Fils | hard | 1933 | 90–61 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
A. Fils leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Fils | 3 - 0 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
R. Collignon vs A. Fils — Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) MODELS: ELO p(A)=0.384 | ML p(A)=0.438 | model p(A)=0.429 — all three lean Fils. Market: A 2.03 (imp 0.467) / B 1.78 (imp 0.533), value_pick B +3.8%. FULL model+market consensus on Fils. FORM — COLLIGNON (grass, hot): Halle Final WON vs Bautista-Agut 6-2 6-4 (DOM, Strong); beat Bellucci 4-6 6-4 6-3 (Strong); beat Dougaz/Popyrin DOM; close losses to Zverev 6-7 6-7 (Elite, competitive) and Cerundolo 4-6 6-4 6-7 at Eastbourne (grind loss). Deep, current grass rhythm, real grass credentials. FORM — FILS (grass, rusty): only 2 grass reps, both exhibitions — beat Mensik 7-5 4-6 10-8, then LOST to Paul 6-7 1-6. Last tour match Rome May 9 (early exit) — ~7-week competitive layoff. Strong clay pedigree (Barcelona title over Rublev, Madrid SF) but grass is his weakest surface with minimal prep. FATIGUE: Collignon 6 matches/14d, 559min court time (8d rest now); Fils 2 matches/14d, 193min (6d rest). Court-time diff >60min flags Collignon load, but rest days mitigate and his 'load' is grass match rhythm vs Fils's rust. NARRATIVE: Let-down — Halle Final won 16d ago → None. TITLE: Halle ~16d ago (grass). Venue: first Wimbledon data, neutral. VERDICT: Models/market lean Fils on surface-blind historical ELO. Qualitative grass read flips it: Collignon is in genuine grass form (title-level run, DOM vs Strong) while Fils is rusty on his weakest surface off a long layoff and lost his only competitive grass hit. Live form > historical ELO. At 2.03 Collignon is value vs a near-coinflip true price. Contrarian fade of consensus — sized modestly.