TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Brancaccio vs T. Zink (Geneva on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with R. Brancaccio favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Brancaccio | T. Zink |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.9% | 46.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.0% | 63.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.0% | 48.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.1% | 38.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Brancaccio | clay | 1548 | 173–132 | 305 |
| T. Zink | hard | 1501 | 67–66 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
R. Brancaccio leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Geneva | clay | R. Brancaccio | 2 - 1 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Mayot | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Hurrion | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kirchheimer | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | J. Wolf | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | J. K. Trotter | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Poling | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used