TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Duckworth vs M. Damas (Geneva on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with J. Duckworth favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Duckworth | M. Damas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
83.2% | 16.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.3% | 39.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1685 | 190–126 | 316 |
| M. Damas | clay | 1491 | 159–118 | 277 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Duckworth leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Geneva | clay | J. Duckworth | 2 - 1 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Mayo | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | D. Sakellaridis | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Brunold | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | T. Faurel | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | N. Slavic | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used