TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Butvilas vs A. Muller (Geneva on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with A. Muller favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Butvilas | A. Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.4% | 58.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.9% | 71.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.3% | 37.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.2% | 55.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.3% | 61.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Butvilas | hard | 1578 | 81–57 | 138 |
| A. Muller | clay | 1637 | 103–90 | 193 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
E. Butvilas leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Geneva | clay | E. Butvilas | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Tabur | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferreira Silva | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Echargui | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | G. Den Ouden | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Napolitano | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used