TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Brancaccio vs S. Wawrinka (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with S. Wawrinka favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Brancaccio | S. Wawrinka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.8% | 41.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.5% | 48.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.6% | 37.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Brancaccio | clay | 1548 | 173–132 | 305 |
| S. Wawrinka | hard | 1720 | 58–54 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
S. Wawrinka leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Geneva | clay | S. Wawrinka | 2 - 1 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Mayot | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used