TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Tabilo vs S. Wawrinka (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Tabilo favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Tabilo | S. Wawrinka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
78.9% | 21.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.5% | 22.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
82.7% | 17.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tabilo | clay | 1825 | 125–68 | 193 |
| S. Wawrinka | hard | 1720 | 58–54 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
A. Tabilo leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7, 2025 | Monte Carlo | clay | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used