TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Trungelliti vs M. Navone (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Navone favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Trungelliti | M. Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.7% | 51.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.1% | 41.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Trungelliti | clay | 1739 | 160–87 | 247 |
| M. Navone | clay | 1815 | 195–108 | 303 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
M. Navone leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Geneva | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Mejia | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used