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A. Mannarino vs R. Collignon — Prediction & Analysis

Geneva · ATP Geneva - 1/16-finals · May 18, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Mannarino vs R. Collignon (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with R. Collignon favoured at 1.08.

Surface clay Odds A. Mannarino 8.00 · R. Collignon 1.08

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: A. Mannarino · R. Collignon · head-to-head record · Geneva

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method A. Mannarino R. Collignon
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
7.9% 92.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
27.2% 72.8%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
13.1% 86.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
16.1% 83.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
11.9% 88.1%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
A. Mannarino hard1711 105–111216
R. Collignon clay1830 136–49185

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.

Head to head

R. Collignon leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
May 19, 2026GenevaclayR. Collignon2 - 0

Recent form

A. Mannarino

L A. Michelsen 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
W L. Tien 2 - 0 July 28, 2026
L A. Galarneau 1 - 2 July 9, 2026
W R. Bertola 2 - 0 July 8, 2026
L A. De Minaur 3 - 0 July 2, 2026

R. Collignon

L D. Altmaier 2 - 0 July 21, 2026
L S. Tsitsipas 2 - 1 July 19, 2026
W J. M. Cerundolo 2 - 1 July 18, 2026
W V. Vacherot 2 - 1 July 17, 2026
W L. Sonego 2 - 0 July 15, 2026

All May 18, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used