TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Mannarino vs R. Collignon (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with R. Collignon favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Mannarino | R. Collignon |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
7.9% | 92.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.2% | 72.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
13.1% | 86.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
16.1% | 83.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
11.9% | 88.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mannarino | hard | 1711 | 105–111 | 216 |
| R. Collignon | clay | 1830 | 136–49 | 185 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
R. Collignon leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Geneva | clay | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used