TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Q. Zheng vs J. Ostapenko (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with Q. Zheng favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Q. Zheng | J. Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.0% | 41.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Zheng | hard | 1887 | 121–55 | 176 |
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1767 | 88–73 | 161 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Q. Zheng leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 27, 2023 | Zhuhai | hard | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 8, 2023 | Abu Dhabi | hard | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 30, 2022 | US Open | hard | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Micic | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Ruzic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 1 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used