TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Udvardy vs E. Mertens (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Udvardy | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.2% | 38.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
78.0% | 22.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
23.4% | 76.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Udvardy | clay | 1702 | 179–102 | 281 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
E. Mertens leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| June 30, 2022 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| W | E. Lys | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | E. Pridankina | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used