TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Osaka vs I. Swiatek (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
20.3% | 79.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.0% | 79.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.2% | 52.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.5% | 70.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| May 29, 2024 | WTA French Open | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 1 |
| April 2, 2022 | Miami | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 9, 2019 | Toronto | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used