TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Basilashvili vs D. Merida Aguilar (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with D. Merida Aguilar favoured at 1.42.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Basilashvili | D. Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
18.5% | 81.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.3% | 69.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.1% | 66.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Basilashvili | hard | 1638 | 77–89 | 166 |
| D. Merida Aguilar | clay | 1776 | 166–102 | 268 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
N. Basilashvili leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Basilashvili | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Vrbensky | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used