TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Sawangkaew (moneyline) in M. Sawangkaew vs M. Chwalinska (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sawangkaew | M. Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.7% | 27.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.4% | 44.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sawangkaew | hard | 1718 | 145–79 | 224 |
| M. Chwalinska | clay | 1841 | 113–59 | 172 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Sawangkaew leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | N. Hibino | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. S. Liang | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 3, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies an 11.2% edge on Sawangkaew, driven by a massive surface ELO differential (+170) favoring the grass specialist. While Chwalinska enters with superior recent quality of wins (beating Elite players on clay), her 0-0 record on grass represents a critical structural hole in her profile that the market has not adequately discounted compared to Sawangkaew's proven 7-2 title-winning form on the surface. Despite valid concerns regarding a potential 'letdown' spot for Sawangkaew and the disparity in opponent quality, the surface transition from clay to grass for a French Open finalist is historically problematic, justifying the value on the underdog.