TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Navone vs H. Medjedovic (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with H. Medjedovic favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Navone | H. Medjedovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.0% | 52.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.2% | 68.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
25.6% | 74.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.8% | 60.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Navone | clay | 1815 | 195–108 | 303 |
| H. Medjedovic | clay | 1875 | 100–43 | 143 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
H. Medjedovic leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | H. Medjedovic | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 19, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | H. Medjedovic | 3 - 1 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | S. Ofner | 2 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 3 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used