TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs N. Bartunkova (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | N. Bartunkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
56.7% | 43.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.9% | 29.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.0% | 39.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| N. Bartunkova | clay | 1676 | 72–40 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
N. Bartunkova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | Y. Yuan | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used