TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs F. Ferro (Paris on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | F. Ferro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
72.1% | 27.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.3% | 26.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Paris | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | B. Palicova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Bennemann | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Basiletti | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Sakellaridi | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used