TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kessler vs I. Jovic (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with I. Jovic favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kessler | I. Jovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.6% | 61.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.4% | 79.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.2% | 65.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.7% | 72.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kessler | hard | 1792 | 101–54 | 155 |
| I. Jovic | hard | 1850 | 69–32 | 101 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
I. Jovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Jovic | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Cristian | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 13, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used