TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Joint vs V. Golubic (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with V. Golubic favoured at 1.85.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Joint | V. Golubic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.3% | 25.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.7% | 51.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Joint | hard | 1725 | 84–53 | 137 |
| V. Golubic | hard | 1724 | 118–68 | 186 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Joint leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 20, 2025 | Tokyo | hard | M. Joint | 2 - 1 |
| May 6, 2025 | Rome | clay | M. Joint | 2 - 1 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | I. Shymanovich | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 | June 20, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used