TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Joint vs A. Li (Strasbourg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with A. Li favoured at 1.41.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Joint | A. Li |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.4% | 58.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.9% | 63.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
32.8% | 67.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Joint leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | A. Li | 2 - 0 |
| May 22, 2025 | Rabat | clay | M. Joint | 2 - 0 |
| April 25, 2024 | W75 Charlottesville, VA | clay | M. Joint | 2 - 0 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used