TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Sakkari vs P. Stearns (Strasbourg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with P. Stearns favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Sakkari | P. Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.6% | 58.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.5% | 62.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sakkari | hard | 1846 | 109–78 | 187 |
| P. Stearns | hard | 1745 | 97–74 | 171 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
P. Stearns leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 5, 2025 | Adelaide | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Parks | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used