TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Zakharova vs D. Kasatkina (Strasbourg on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Zakharova | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.9% | 64.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.0% | 60.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.6% | 67.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.0% | 71.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Zakharova | hard | 1771 | 168–89 | 257 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
D. Kasatkina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Strasbourg | clay | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | H. Vandewinkel | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used