TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Sonego vs E. Butvilas (Geneva on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with L. Sonego favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Sonego | E. Butvilas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
37.2% | 62.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
25.2% | 74.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.8% | 67.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Sonego | hard | 1746 | 80–88 | 168 |
| E. Butvilas | hard | 1578 | 81–57 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Jan. 22, 2026.
E. Butvilas leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Geneva | clay | E. Butvilas | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Tabur | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferreira Silva | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Echargui | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used