TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Siegemund vs Ka. Pliskova (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with Ka. Pliskova favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Siegemund | Ka. Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.0% | 64.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.3% | 52.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Siegemund | hard | 1715 | 70–62 | 132 |
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
Ka. Pliskova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Anisimova | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | May 26, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used