TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samsonova vs A. Li (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with L. Samsonova favoured at 1.75.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Samsonova | A. Li |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.2% | 70.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.5% | 45.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Samsonova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used