TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Ka. Pliskova vs E. Rybakina (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.14.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Ka. Pliskova | E. Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.4% | 67.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.4% | 80.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.3% | 68.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.2% | 82.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 16, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 9, 2023 | Abu Dhabi | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 18, 2022 | Guadalajara 2 | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used