TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Siniakova vs A. Kalinskaya (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with K. Siniakova favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Siniakova | A. Kalinskaya |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.3% | 38.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.9% | 34.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.2% | 38.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.2% | 45.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Siniakova | hard | 1822 | 101–77 | 178 |
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1880 | 126–78 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 18, 2026.
A. Kalinskaya leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 14, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 29, 2023 | WTA US Open | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | R. Masarova | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used