TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Zakharova (moneyline) in K. Muchova vs A. Zakharova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Muchova | A. Zakharova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.8% | 26.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
82.8% | 17.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
| A. Zakharova | hard | 1771 | 168–89 | 257 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | H. Vandewinkel | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The model identifies a 9.1% edge on A. Zakharova, derived from a consensus win probability (26.3%) that significantly exceeds the market's implied probability (17.2%). While Muchova is the superior player, the market has aggressively shortened her price (1.14) despite a dangerous scheduling context: she played and won a final just one day ago (June 27), leaving minimal time for rest and travel to Wimbledon. This 'final to R1' turnaround is a classic letdown spot, validating the model's hesitation to match the market's 87% confidence. With the market 'chasing' her recent form and the fatigue factor underpriced, the value lies with the rested underdog.