TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Majchrzak (moneyline) in K. Majchrzak vs A. Tabilo (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Majchrzak | A. Tabilo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
88.2% | 11.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
88.2% | 11.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Majchrzak | hard | 1740 | 93–57 | 150 |
| A. Tabilo | clay | 1825 | 125–68 | 193 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A. Tabilo leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Majchrzak | 3 - 0 |
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Tabilo | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 29, 2022 | US Open | hard | A. Tabilo | 3 - 1 |
| L | G. Monfils | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Z. Svajda | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: K. Majchrzak vs A. Tabilo — Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) MODELS: - ELO prob A: 0.882 | ML prob A: 0.533 | Model: 0.882 - Market: A 1.44 (impl 65.6%) / B 2.75 (impl 34.4%) | value_pick A, edge +0.226 - ELO disagrees big vs market in favor of A; ML cautious (near coin-flip). FORM — MAJCHRZAK (A) [grass: elite]: - W Hertogenbosch FINAL 06-14 vs De Minaur (1910, Elite) 6-3 2-6 7(7)-6(5) [GRIND, TITLE] - W SF vs Medvedev (1858, Strong) 7(7)-6 6-1 [GRIND] - W QF vs Auger-Aliassime (1745, Strong) 6-4 6-3 [DOM] - W R16 vs McCabe (1691, Strong) 6-0 6-3 [DOM] - W R32 vs Virtanen (1798) 7(9)-6 4-6 7-6 [GRIND] - L London R16 06-16 vs Lehecka (1783) 5-7 6(4)-7(7) [close] Rested 14d since last match. Court time 295min/14d. FORM — TABILO (B) [grass: poor]: - L Mallorca R16 06-23 vs Marozsan (1521, Weak) 2-6 3-6 [no sets won] - L London R16 06-16 vs Hijikata (1709) 2-6 4-6 [no sets won] - Clay strength: won Aix en Provence title; beat Majchrzak 6-1 6-3 6-4 (FO 05-26, CLAY). 0-2 on grass this season, zero sets won. FATIGUE: A 295min/14d but rested 14d off; B played 06-23 (1wk). Roughly balanced rest, slight A freshness edge. NARRATIVE: - TITLE: Hertogenbosch (grass) 16d ago — beyond let-down window, afterglow faded, fully rested. - H2H loss to Tabilo was 5wks ago but on CLAY — surface flip strongly favors A. - Venue: first Wimbledon appearance in window — neutral. VERDICT: BET A (Majchrzak). Surface-form differential validates the ELO edge: A dominant on grass (DOM over Strong fields + title over Elite), B cannot win on grass (0-2, no sets). ML caution stems from the clay H2H, which doesn't transfer to grass. Price 1.44 (breakeven 69.4%) vs est ~72% true = thin but positive edge with strong directional conviction. Modest stake.